A dramatic escalation of hostilities between the Turkish and Syrian military took place on Thursday, February 19. As the Syrian troops and Iranian-backed militias supported by the Russian airpower advanced on Idlib, the last stronghold of the Syrian rebels supported by the Turks, the Turkish President Erdogan issued an ultimatum for the Syrians to withdraw to the their previously agreed upon positions. If they do not, Turkey will start a military offensive. As of February 23, another war in the Middle East appears very likely.

About a month ago, there have been also a threat of war in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S. Fortunately, both sides deescalated the situation, and the war was avoided at least for now.

Dramatic increase in hostilities both in January and in February have been due to the influence of Saturn/Pluto conjunction. It was already in effect in December and became exact on January 13, 2020. After January 13, Saturn and Pluto began to orbit apart, but remained only about 3° off this conjunction on February 23. 

Historically, stressful aspects between Saturn and Pluto, especially conjunctions, have coincided with significant rise in violence. Thus, Saturn/Pluto conjunction in 1914 marked the beginning of WWI, while a square between these two planets—WWII. Almost all Israeli-Arab wars occurred during Saturn/Pluto stressful aspects. The same is true for most terrorist attacks against the Americans, including the tragedy of September 11. 

Since Israel and its Arab neighbors gained their independence in the late 1940s, eight Saturn/Pluto major stressful aspects, such as conjunctions, squares and oppositions took place. Six of them coincided with outbreaks of wars. The latest of these wars has been the Syrian Civil War that began during Saturn/Pluto square in 2011 and is still raging today. Most likely, this war will end during Saturn/Pluto conjunction in 2020.

Uranus/Neptune semi-square came in effect in the mid-2016. Its stressful influence will be felt through the spring of 2021. Historically, all Uranus/Neptune stressful aspects, including conjunctions, semi-squares, squares, sesqui-squares (135°) marked a rise in violence. For example, the Korean War in 1950-53, Yom Kippur War in 1973 and genocide in Rwanda in 1994 all took place during such Uranus/Neptune stressful aspects. 

There have been three Uranus/Neptune stressful aspects since Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and Iraq gained independence. Uranus/Neptune square in 1952-56, which coincided with Saturn/Pluto square in 1955-56, marked the Suez Canal War in October-November 1956. Uranus/Neptune semi-square in 1971-74, which occurred at the same time as Saturn/Pluto square in 1973-74 coincided with the Yom Kippur War in October 1973. Fortunately, no war raged in the Middle East during Uranus/Neptune conjunction in 1991-94, which coincided with Saturn/Pluto square in 1993. However, there was an obvious increase in intensity in the Iraqi Civil War fought on and off since 1991. So, there is 66.7% probability of a war starting in the Middle East during a combination of the Uranus/Neptune semi-square with Saturn/Pluto conjunction. 

Jupiter/Pluto conjunction will be in effect from March through June and in November of 2020. The influence of this conjunction will be similar to that of Saturn/Pluto discussed above. So, the probability of a new war in the region will be even more than 66.7%.

Uranus/Pluto bi-septile, which is 102°48´ (2/7 of the circle) will be in effect in May-June 2020. Historically, such aspects are associated with the rise in violence. Acting on their own, their influence is fairly weak. Nevertheless, the stressful influence of this bi-septile will increase the possibility of another war in the Middle East in 2020.

Therefore, there is more than 66.7% probability of another Middle Eastern war starting in 2020.

How severe this war will be? The planetary aspects formed by Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto in 2020 are very similar to those formed during the Suez Canal War in 1956 and Yom Kippur War in 1973.  If this war does start, it will be similar to the other two wars in 1956 and 1973. It may last no more than a month, would be limited in scope and the number of casualties would be between seven and thirty thousand.

When will it start? The Suez Canal War in 1956 started on October 29, 1956, when the Sun formed an exact conjunction to Uranus, while Mars was in exact sesqui-square to Neptune. The Yom Kippur War began on October 6, 1973, during Saturn/Pluto square forming a T-square with the Lunar Nodes. Historically, wars also start when Saturn/Pluto conjunctions form stressful aspects to the Sun, Mercury, Venus or Mars. Indeed, the recent confrontations between the Turkish and Syrian forces occurred when Mercury formed a semi-square first to Pluto on February 9 and 10 and then to Saturn from March 12 through 21. From February 23 through March 6, Mercury and the Sun will continue forming semi-squares to Pluto and Saturn, while Venus will form a square to these planets as well. We will be very fortunate that this war foes not start in the period of February 23-March 6. Unfortunately, there are still many possibilities for this war to start during Jupiter/Pluto conjunction from March through June and again in November of 2020, especially in March 20-24 when Mars forms a conjunction to Jupiter and then to Pluto.

On a positive note: We are entering a new 37-year Saturn/Pluto cycle, which will bring many positive changes to the world once the trouble associated with beginning of cycle come to pass in year or two. Besides, for the vast majority of my readers, all the trials and tribulations of 2020 will occur only on TV screens and will not affect their personal lives. 

On a negative note: Unfortunately, the influence of Jupiter/Saturn/Pluto conjunction and Uranus/Neptune semi-square is affecting not only Turkey and Syria, but other Middle Eastern nations, and the U.S. and Russia as well. Even if the war between Turkey and Syria is avoided, there is still a high possibility that other wars could still take place in the region in 2020. As usual, Israel and Gaza could be the most likely protagonists.